College Football Playoff Viewer’s Guide: Quarterfinals
Your in-depth guide to everything CFP-related — all in one place.
Jake McCreven
28 December 2024
BY THE NUMBERS:
No. 8 Ohio State
36 PPG, 11.4 OPPG (+24.6)
SOS: 4 (13.6)
168.2 RUSH/YPG (33.6 RUSH ATT/GAME)
259.2 PASS/YPG (28.8 PASS ATT/GAME)
No. 1 Oregon
36.9 PPG, 18.1 OPPG (+18.8)
SOS: 18 (9.6)
177.3 RUSH/YPG (36.1 RUSH ATT/GAME)
269.5 PASS/YPG (30.7 PASS ATT/GAME
The Matchup:
While the focus leading up to the second meeting between these two Big-10 juggernauts has been primarily the battle between Buckeye edge defenders JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer and Oregon tackles Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr., the positional battle arguably more important can be found just a few gaps inside. The play of Oregon’s interior offensive line — which has gotten better every week — and Ohio State’s stiff defensive interior will make-or-break the Ducks’ run game, and therefore its offensive production.
Oregon ran the ball successfully when it mattered most in Eugene back in October, favoring the side of Tuimoloau and Conerly more than Sawyer and Cornelius. If the Ducks can find success on the ground again and force the Buckeyes into more one-high looks (what killed them back in October), Dillon Gabriel’s arm can very well win the game on the outside with weapons Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden.
Can the Buckeye offensive line hold up against another hulking pass rush? Weapons Derrick Harmon, Jordan Burch and Jamaree Caldwell can all wreck games with speed, power and discipline. Engineering the same looks that helped fend off the vaunted Volunteer pass rush last weekend should help — and that means running the ball early. TraVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins must find success in order for Will Howard to feel comfortable in the pass game.
Both offenses have the advantage on the perimeter, but both defenses have the advantage on the interior. Finding a way to exploit one of those matchups will be paramount, as both teams look to avenge loses from year(s) past.
Where to Win — No. 8 Ohio State: Control the game defensively — force interior pressure and slow down Oregon’s two-headed running game. Don’t let Gabriel find downfield shots, and generate pressures through the Ducks’ spotty interior. Manufacture looks for all three receivers, as well as both Judkins and Henderson out of the backfield.
Where to Win — No. 1 Oregon: On the defensive line. Harmon, Burch and Caldwell need to get through a depleted Buckeye offensive line and win with pressure. Offensively, the Ducks have the advantage on the outside. Look for most plays to bleed outside (outside zone, screens, etc.). Test the volatile Buckeye secondary early.
Last Matchup:
32-31 Oregon — Eugene, OR, 10/12/2024
BY THE NUMBERS:
No. 7 Notre Dame
38.8 PPG, 13.8 OPPG (+25)
SOS: 17 (9.7)
222.4 RUSH/YPG (35.6 RUSH ATT/GAME)
196.8 PASS/YPG (27.5 PASS ATT/GAME)
No. 2 Georgia
31.9 PPG, 21.8 (+10.1)
SOS: 1 (17.5)
126.3 RUSH/YPG (31.3 RUSH ATT/GAME)
280.7 PASS/YPG (37.0 PASS ATT/GAME)
The Matchup:
The combination of Georgia quarterback Gunnar Stockton’s first collegiate start, a Bulldogs’ receiving room that leads the nation in drops and Notre Dame’s elite secondary that ranks near the top of almost every defensive statistic is hellacious enough for a Kirby Smart team that has already won the SEC and played the toughest schedule in the country this regular season.
But — Georgia is still coached by Smart, and will be scrappy on every down in every game they play in. A true test of game planning and coaching fortitude, the matchup of Georgia’s inconsistent yet explosive run game and Notre Dame’s talented but at times lacking run defense may be enough to cancel out the Bulldog passing woes. The Irish defensive front, led by the standout interior duo of Howard Cross and Rylie Mills, has struggled at times against the run, and while the Bulldog offensive line is banged up and out of sorts, Georgia has been able to run the ball when it matters most.
Riley Leonard’s ability to win with his arm again takes center stage for the Irish, whose offense started last weekend’s matchup against Indiana with a tip-ball interception. If Leonard can find the holes in the Bulldog secondary (turn on the Alabama tape), it allows running the ball with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to be much easier.
Keeping the ball on the ground against Georgia seemingly never ends well. Downfield shots are necessary to back up a defense that thrives on generating pressure and playing with confidence. Get the ball in space quickly and allow the elusive Irish playmakers to churn up yardage.
Where to Win — No. 7 Notre Dame: Use a stout defensive front to limit the run game, and force Stockton to win on the outside. Don’t make or break the game on Riley Leonard’s ability to throw out of tough situations — win in the trenches and keep the Bulldog front on its toes with quarterback-designed runs.
Where to Win — No. 2 Georgia: Allow Etienne, Frazier and Robinson to win the game. Lean on an experienced and talented interior offensive line to ware down the Irish front. Look for deep shots only when ahead of the sticks. Keep Jeremiyah Love in check on the perimeter and win on the outside with talent defensively.
Last Matchup:
23-17 Georgia — Athens, GA, 9/21/2019
BY THE NUMBERS:
No. 3 Boise State
37.7 PPG, 22.6 OPPG (+15.1)
SOS: 73 (-1.3)
242.9 RUSH/YPG (39.8 RUSH ATT/GAME)
215.7 PASS/YPG (29.3 PASS ATT/GAME)
No. 6 Penn State
33.9 PPG, 15.9 OPPG (+18)
SOS: 12 (10.6)
201.2 RUSH/YPG (38.0 RUSH ATT/GAME)
238.6 PASS/YPG (27.8 PASS ATT/GAME)
Last Matchup:
NONE
The Matchup:
Can the Nittany Lions’ stout run defense stonewall one of the best runningback seasons in college football history? The battle between the Penn State front seven and Boise State run game will take center stage in Glendale, as Ashton Jeanty aims to break the single-season all-time rushing record against one of the top defensive units in the nation.
On the season, Penn State allows just 3.1 yards/carry (9th in FBS), but has demonstrated noticeable tackling issues over the course of the last five weeks, especially from second level defenders. Matching up with Jeanty, who has forced 135 missed tackles this season (first in FBS by over 40) does create cause for concern, as the NFL-bound back ranks second in the nation in rushing yards — only counting his yards after contact.
Forcing Maddux Madsen to win on the outside should be priority number one for the Nittany Lions, who dismantled SMU’s high-powered passing attack in Happy Valley last weekend. Tight end Matt Lauter is the X-factor, as the Penn State secondary will prioritze Cam Camper and Latrell Caples down field. Can the stocky tight end find holes in the zone?
The Nittany Lion offense will take a relatively similar medication as last weekend, with an emphasis on running the football between the tackles (staying away from the perimeter) and using play action to create down field. Allar has thrived in the NFL-style play action fakes that result in middle of the field completions all season long. Look for that to continue against a spotty Boise State secondary.
Where to Win — No. 6 Penn State: The same formula as last week — run the ball with Singleton/Allen until the Broncos can stop it. Don’t make the game about winning on the outside. Defensively — anyone but Jeanty. Pressure Madsen on third down and keep Jeanty in the peripheral at all times.
Where to Win — No. 3 Boise State: Establish Jeanty early. He’s found success against nine-man boxes all season, will he find it again? Hold extreme gap integrity against a buzzsaw Nittany Lion run game — play in one-high and leave cornerbacks on islands.
BY THE NUMBERS:
No. 5 Texas
33.9 PPG, 13.3 OPPG (+20.6)
SOS: 3 (13.7)
173.5 RUSH/YPG (37.5 RUSH ATT/GAME)
275.3 PASS/YPG (33.7 PASS ATT/GAME)
No. 4 Arizona State
33.1 PPG, 21.3 OPPG (+11.8)
SOS: 39 (6.1)
198.8 RUSH/YPG (41.7 RUSH ATT/GAME)
224.4 PASS/YPG (25.7 PASS ATT/GAME)
The Matchup:
The talented, athletic and nasty Longhorn defensive front will poise the biggest challenge of the season for an at times lackluster Sun Devil offensive line. Arizona State thrives off getting the ball into action early, whether that be through Cam Skattebo or any of its receivers on the outside with screens or quick passes.
Sam Leavitt has not been asked to win games by himself this season — as the Sun Devils have found success through other offensive avenues — but the redshirt freshman will have to step up against one of the nation’s grittiest defenses when the Longhorns hone in on Skattebo out of the backfield. Arizona State must make due without top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who will be sidelined with a shoulder injury.
The Sun Devil pass rush will also have to step up, as its 24.8% pressure rate will not carve into one of the best offensive lines in the FBS, spearheaded by first-round tackle duo Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams. Look for the classic Sarkisian screens early that set up longer-developing play action passes later, but look first and foremost for the Texas run game to make its mark early.
Texas sports one of the top rosters — from a talent perspective — in the country, but can the Longhorns elevate to Playoff winners from Playoff makers?
Where to Win — No. 5 Texas: Win with mentality. The Longhorns win almost every positional battle, but the mental block will be the test for the SEC-runner-ups. Allow Ewers to ease into the game, leaning on Wisner/Blue early until the Sun Devils creep up in the box. Smother Skattebo with well-timed blitzes.
Where to Win — No. 4 Arizona State: Stay in two-high but allow linebackers to react and fill quickly. Falling behind the Texas run game is something the Sun Devils cannot afford. Stick to the identity offensively — Cam Skattebo.
Last Matchup:
52-34 Texas — San Diego, CA, 12/27/2007