College Football Playoff Viewer’s Guide: National Seminfinals
7 January 2025
Jake McCreven
There are only three games left in the entire college football season. That alone is enough to warrant bawling your eyes out uncontrollably, but when you consider that the next CFB Saturday won’t be until August 23rd, it makes you cry it bit harder… oh, just me?
Nonetheless, the polarizing 12-team Playoff field has been whittled down to four — with each remaining team being seeded outside of the top four. That means that the top four seeds (all who had first round byes and would’ve been the only teams in the Playoff in the format of year’s past) are out. Seeds five, six, seven and eight all remain and will do battle for a spot in the National Title game on January 20th.
Here is a preview of each of the semifinal matchups as game day draws near.
BY THE NUMBERS
No. 7 Notre Dame:
37.7 PPG, 13.6 OPPG (+24.1)
217.6 RUSH/YPG (35.6 ATT/GAME)
189.1 PASS/YPG (27.3 ATT/GAME)
127.9 OPP RUSH/YPG (3.6 OPP YPC)
167.4 OPP PASS/YPG (8.13% SACK%)
SOS: 14 (11.6)
No. 6 Penn State:
33.7 PPG, 15.8 OPPG (+17.9)
202.2 RUSH/YPG (38.2 ATT/GAME)
234.1 PASS/YPG (27.6 ATT/GAME)
101.0 OPP RUSH/YPG (3.1 OPP YPC)
187.9 OPP PASS/YPG (8.07% SACK%)
SOS: 16 (11.1)
Last Matchup: 31-10 Penn State — 2007, State College, PA
Series History: 9-9-1 (TIE IN 1925) — Via Winspedia
The Matchup:
Two of the grittiest teams in the nation square off in New Orleans to determine one of two bids in the National Championship on January 20th. Notre Dame has played one less game than Penn State despite not being a top-four seed — a product of being an independent — which gives the Irish one less week of wear and tear heading into what will be a rock fight in the Superdome.
The Irish have paved their way to New Orleans with victories over Indiana (27-17) and Georgia (23-10), while Penn State took down Southern Methodist (38-10 — largest margin of victory in the CFP) and Boise State (31-14).
Two top-20 rushing offenses will be taking the field on Wednesday, with both teams averaging over 200 yards/game on the ground and over five yards per rush attempt. Notre Dame’s vaunted three headed backfield monster is made up of runningbacks Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price as well as quarteback Riley Leonard. The threat of Leonard carving apart a defense with the wide zone read or designed quarterback power has been a headache for both of the teams the Irish have matched up against so far (Leonard ran for 80 yards against Georgia). Conversely, the Nittany Lions rely on the old-school, smashmouth approach, leaning on the powerful duo of Nick Singleton and Kayton Allen in 12 personnel to churn up yardage on the ground.
Both offenses run the ball to set up the pass and often use play action to take allotted down field shots (29.3% of Allar’s dropbacks are off play action, with Leonard’s mark at 18.9%). Both teams’ receiving corps have struggled at times this season, especially on the outside, which has limited their offensive ceilings.
Winning on the outside will be a key to the game, with Notre Dame’s secondary possessing some of the top talent in the country while the Nittany Lion core has been depleted as the season has progressed. If the Irish can use its brilliant safety duo of Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler to slow down Tyler Warren (who exploded against Boise State), the Nittany Lion offense may be grasping at straws in the passing game.
Bottom line: whichever team runs the ball better (and whichever defense defends the run better) will most likely punch their ticket to the national title game.
Where to Win (Notre Dame): Anyone but Tyler Warren — limiting the world-beating tight end with Watts and Shuler will be key. Shore up run gap integrity (which the Irish have struggled with at times this season), and commit to making Penn State’s receivers win on the outside. Pressure Allar with unconventional looks. Offensively, stick to what has worked: running the football. Producing on the ground against a Nittany Lion front which has struggled with tackling will be enormous towards winning in New Orleans.
Where to Win (Penn State): Manufacture open looks in the passing game with Tre Wallce and Omari Evans, not forcing the ball to Warren. Stick to running the ball early against an Irish front which has had fits against the run all season. Defensively, get off the field on third down and don’t let the Irish salt the clock away. Commit to making Leonard win with his arm by slowing down Love and Price.
BY THE NUMBERS
No. 8 Ohio State:
36.4 PPG, 12.1 OPPG (+24.3)
169.1 RUSH/YPG (33.4 ATT/GAME)
263.4 PASS/YPG (28.6 ATT/GAME)
92.6 OPP RUSH/YPG (2.7 OPP YPC)
152.4 OPP PASS/YPG (11.24% SACK%)
SOS: 2 (14.8)
No. 5 Texas:
34.3 PPG, 14.5 OPPG (+19.8)
165.6 RUSH/YPG (36.9 ATT/GAME)
278.4 PASS/YPG (33.5 ATT/GAME)
111.8 OPP RUSH/YPG (3.2 OPP YPC)
166.1 OPP PASS/YPG (8.43% SACK%)
SOS: 3 (13.5)
Last Matchup: 24-21 Texas — 2009, Glendale, AZ
Series History: 2-1 (Texas) — Via Winspedia
The Matchup:
There are two positional battles in this game that I believe can determine the outcome and send one team to Atlanta for the National Championship.
The battle between Texas’ first round tackle duo of Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams and Ohio State’s terrific edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau will go a long way in determining the flow of the Texas offense. Both Tennessee and Oregon failed to crack the Buckeye defensive front, producing sluggish offensive performances en route to being outscored 83-38.
The Longhorns found paydirt on the ground against Clemson (292 rushing yards) but struggled against Arizona State, earning just 1.7 yards/carry. The difference? Texas did not have Cameron Williams available against the Sun Devils. Relying heavily on an outside zone-oriented scheme, the run blocking prowess of the tackles becomes increasingly more important. If the Longhorns can win on the edge and allow Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue to get out in space, Texas has already done more than Tennessee and Oregon combined. Conversely, if the Buckeyes stymie the Longhorn ground game, the same blueprint that beat Tennessee and Oregon will be laid out in front of Ryan Day.
Inarguably the most crucial positional battle in this game — and perhaps the most star-studded of the entire season — will be the one between Ohio State’s receiving corps and Texas’ secondary. Both groups are ranked near — or at — the top of their respective positional categories, with Ohio State boasting the three headed monster of Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell State while Texas relies on the experience and playmaking ability of players such as Jahdae Barron, Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba.
The Longhorns oftentimes sit in basic, fundamental-oriented zone coverage, letting everything stay in front of them and allowing the spectacular safety duo of Taaffe and Mukuba to roam over the top. The Buckeyes have been utilizing play action passes more frequently in the College Football Playoff, which will test the discipline of a Longhorn secondary that has not broke yet this season. Choosing how to defend the Buckeye receivers may very well determine who moves on and who watches January 20th’s National Championship from the couch.
Who are the X-factors? The quarterbacks. As cliche as it sounds, whichever quarterback can make the downfield throws, check down when necessary and escape the caving in pockets will help their team advance. Look for both defenses to put pressure on the opposing quarterback early as both offenses get their feet underneath them.
Where to Win (Ohio State): It starts with shutting down the run. Use the terrific play of Sawyer and Tuimoloau to stifle the Longhorns’ outside zone scheme, and pin their ears back on third down to get after Ewers. Find Gunnar Helm on third down — the tight end is a threat. On offense, don’t give the Longhorn secondary confidence early. Take what the zone-heavy scheme is leaving open and force its defensive backs to play up — and then take the downfield shot. Do not abandon the run game.
Where to Win (Texas): Win the battle on the edge — will be a top priority for both teams. Run to set up the pass and allow Ewers to settle into a rhythm. Utilize all weapons (that means Isaiah Bond as well!). Defensively, do not allow Smith to get going early. Letting the freshman carve apart the backend will only create problems on the front end. Stiffening up in the middle will be key against a counter-heavy Buckeye run scheme.