The 2024 Big XII Preview Capsule;
The coming and going of perennial powerhouses leaves the Big XII in CFP front running.
Jake McCreven
7 July 2024
As the frontier of conference chaos re-opened during the offseason, the Big-XII claimed stake to four new teams from the now depleted PAC-XII conference. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah all joined the ranks of the Big-XII starting July 1st, and two of the four (Arizona, Utah) look to contend immediately in a conference guaranteed to send one team to the new twelve team College Football Playoff.
1. Oklahoma State, 12-0 (9-0)
Cowboys at a Glance:
Twenty one starters return (!) to a team that made the Big-XII Championship game last season, and Oklahoma State ranks fourth in the country in returning production at 77%. Included in that 77% is the Cowboys’ crown jewel at runningback, Ollie Gordon II. Gordon, despite his recent arrest, will run behind an offensive line returning all of its starters from 2023 — he ran for 1,732 yards last season and 21 TD. Although the play of quarterback Alan Bowman remains a question mark, a receiving corps littered with a slew of weapons including De’Zhaun Srtibling and Brennan Presley will make things easier for Bowman against Big-XII units not notoriously known for their great pass defense. On defense, the Pokes sport one of the better fronts in the conference, led by three year starter Collin Oliver and linebacker Nick Martin. The schedule ranks 84th in opponent win percentage from 2023, and is the projected 54th hardest in college football in 2024. With the three hardest games being back-to-back-to-back, a possible slip up is possible against Utah (home), Kansas State (away), and West Virginia (home). OSU does have a better roster on paper than all three of these teams, but it is the Big-XII, and cannibalism is the very thing that plauged the conference a year ago.
RB Ollie Gordon II, WR Brennan Presley, WR Rashod Owens, WR De’Zhaun Stribling, ED Collin Oliver, DT Justin Kirkland, LB Nick Martin, S Kendal Daniels
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2. Kansas State, 10-2 (8-1)
Wildcats at a Glance:
Out goes Will Howard (Ohio State), in comes Avery Johnson. The Wildcats ended last season with Johnson at the helm, beating NC State in the Pop Tarts Bowl 28-19. Johnson is a proven dual threat at quarterback, and the schedule becomes remarkably easier as he takes the reigns in Manhattan. Runningback DJ Giddens returns after a 1,000 yard season last year, and wide receivers Dante Cephas and Keegan Johnson are threats on the outside. The defense is headlined by NFL-talent Jacob Parrish at cornerback and team leader Austin Moore at linebacker, returning seven starters and allowing 21.0 PPG last season. The schedule is not particularly challenging, avoiding Utah and hosting Oklahoma State and Arizona, while also going on a stretch of Houston, BYE, Arizona State, and Cincinnati later in the season. A signature Sunflower Showdown will be, in my mind, the deciding factor as to whether or not KSU makes the Big-XII Championship. Early season tests against Arizona and OSU may catch a retooled offense off balance, but the Wildcats will be contenders for the CFP in 2024.
*Note that the Wildcats’ game against Arizona does NOT count as a conference game in 2024
QB Avery Johnson, RB DJ Giddens, WR Keagan Johnson, T Easton Kilty, C Hadley Panzer, LB Austin Moore, CB Jacob Parrish
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3. Kansas, 11-1 (8-1)
Jayhawks at a Glance:
Yes, Kansas did finish with a better record than Kansas State, but the Wildcats would still qualify over the Jayhawks due to the head-to-head qualification and the fact that KSU-ARI is not a conference matchup this season. The Jayhawks return twelve starters, including quarterback Jalon Daniels and cornerback Cobee Bryant, two cornerstones of the program’s revitalization under Lance Leipold. The schedule, while not tremendously difficult, does ramp up at the end of the year with trips to Kansas State and against Iowa State. The Jayhawks have reached their zenith thus far under Leipold, as the offense sports some of the most dangerous weapons in the conference (Neal, Arnold, Skinner, Grimm), the secondary is occupied by three NFL-caliber players in Bryant, Mello Dotson, and Marvin Grant, and the health of Jalon Daniels appears to be… fine. Banking on the fact that Daniels stays healthy for a majority of 2024, the Jayhawks should have no problem contending for the Big-XII Championship, a game they fell short of last season without Daniels at the helm.
QB Jalon Daniels, RB Devin Neal, WR Lawrence Arnold, WR Quinton Skinner, WR Luke Grimm, C Shane Bumgardner, CB Cobee Bryant, CB Mello Dotson
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4. Arizona, 10-2 (7-2)
Wildcats at a Glance:
Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan decided to stay in Tucson when head coach Jedd Fisch left for Washington this past offseason. Surrounding Fifita, the true sophomore phenom, and McMillan, are two of the top tackles in the conference in Jonah Savaiinea and Raymond Pulido. On defense, key pieces such as Tre Smith (ED), Jacob Manu (LB), Tacario Davis (CB), and Gunner Maldonado (S) give the Wildcats star-power and experience in a reloaded — and young — Big-XII. The schedule, while avoiding Oklahoma State and Kansas, does draw away games at Utah and UCF, but more importantly, the Wildcats may be susceptible to trap games laden throughout the schedule. Colorado and TCU are two trap games I do see the Wildcats dropping. Coach Brennan is new to the Power-4 level (from San Jose State), and young players will be counted on immediately to step into the shoes left by NFL-departed talent. A new system, with new players, and new teams may lead to trouble for the Wildcats, but, with top fire power at skill positions and one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, Arizona should be just fine as they acclimate to the Big-XII.
QB Noah Fifita, RB Rayshon Luke, WR Tetairoa McMillan, T Jonah Savaiinaea, T Raymond Pulido, ED Tre Smith, LB Jacob Manu, CB Tacario Davis, S Gunner Maldonado
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5. Utah, 10-2 (7-2)
Utes at a Glance:
Kyle Whittingham has bred a tradition of winning at Utah that reflects in the near perpetual “contending” status placed on the Utes. New conference? No problem. New receiving core? No problem. Lack of a true cowbell back? No problem. Most projections have the Utes inside the top twelve in preseason polls, the highest in the conference, and quarterback Cam Rising returns after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury. With no quarterback carousel in Salt Lake City, the Utes, spearheaded by a demoralizing run game and physical defensive front, jump into the Big-XII with ambitions of making the CFP. Three returning starters up front, including standout tackle Spencer Fano, will supplement the lack of a premier backfield like traditional Utah teams, and receivers Dorian Singer and Money Parks look to lead a relatively inexperienced group overall. The front six on defense returns five starters, and the secondary returns two of five, lead by safety Tao Johnson. The schedule is favorable aside from two early season games against Oklahoma State and Arizona, and Utah may very well waltz into AT&T Stadium with a perfect record, yet I air on the side of caution with a Utes offense that is new and retooled.
QB Cam Rising, WR Dorian Singer, TE Brant Kuithe, T Caleb Lomu, T Spencer Fano, CB Zemaiah Vaughn, S Tao Johnson
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6. UCF, 8-4 (6-3)
Knights at a Glance:
Despite KJ Jefferson transferring in from Arkansas, runningback RJ Harvey remains the focal point of the Knights offense. Returning three starters from a year ago, UCF will lean on the run game with its stable of backs including the legs of quarterback Jefferson. Bookended by NFL talents on defense in edge Malachi Lawrence and safety Demari Henderson, UCF will look to improve as a unit which ranked 81st in the country in 2023. The run defense, anchored by Lee Hunter and Ricky Barber, should be stronger in 2024, but with over half of the projected starting lineup being transfers, the defense may take some time to gel — good thing the Knights avoid any pesky out of conference foes. Also returning are two of UCF’s top three receivers from last season in Kobe Hudson and Xavier Townsend, and backup runningback Peny Boone. Depth is not a concern on offense. On defense, however, key players will need to stay fresh in order for UCF to contend later in the season, with trips to West Virginia and home tests against Arizona and Utah.
QB KJ Jefferson, RB RJ Harvey, WR Kobe Hudson, WR Xavier Townsend, ED Malachi Lawrence, LB Xe’ree Alexander, S Demari Henderson
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7. Iowa State, 8-4 (5-4)
Cyclones at a Glance:
Iowa State falls victim to the vicious disease that is Big-XII cannibalism in this projection, starting 6-0 before finishing 2-4. This does not imply that I am down on ISU, but instead concerned for the teams in “tier-two” of the conference, as there are just so many of them. Quarterback Rocco Becht is an undeniable bright spot, shattering records held by ISU great Brock Purdy last season. The entire offensive line returns and so does most of the receiving core, led by Jaylin Noel. On defense, the Cyclones are spearheaded by an outstanding secondary, lead by safeties Jeremiah Cooper, Beau Freyler, and Malik Verdon. Almost all of the front seven returns to a unit which ranked 37th against the run in 2023, and the defense overall should be substantially better. The lack of a run game is what will hamper the Cyclones in 2024, with late season pushes at Kansas, Utah, and home against K-State all presenting formitable run defenses and tall tasks for a run game ranking 101st nationally last season. To succeed in November, teams need a stable run game, which ISU does not appear to have.
QB Rocco Becht, WR Jaylin Noel, WR Jayden Higgins, TE Ben Brahmer, LB Caleb Bacon, S Beau Freyler, S Jeremiah Cooper, S Malik Verdon
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8. West Virginia, 6-6 (4-5)
Mountaineers at a Glance:
Garrett Greene is a difference maker at quarterback who can keep the Mountaineers in almost any game, and the offensive line is one of the deepest and strongest in the conference. Good start for WVU. The run game, piloted by CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White, will be hard to improve on as the unit ranked third nationally last season and returns almost every key piece. The defense is streaky, as after a returning three man front, step in three relatively inexperienced linebackers, while the secondary will rely on a bevy of transfers headlined by cornerback Garrett Hollis. The schedule is challenging, however, and will test the defense right away, as tests against PSU and Kansas will be heavyweight bouts for a team on the rise in Morgantown. Banking on the savvy Greene to bail the team out of close calls will not work against the tougher Big-XII teams, which includes a five game stretch of Kansas, OKST, ISU, KSU, and Arizona. While I am a firm believer in the Mountaineers in 2024 and would put them number one on my list of dark horses, the schedule is quite disadvantageous and may re-ignite Neal Brown’s seat.
QB Garrett Greene, RB CJ Donaldson, TE Cole Taylor, T Wyatt Milum ED Sean Martin, DT Edward Vesterinen, LB Trey Lathan, CB Garnett Hollis
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9. Baylor, 6-6 (4-5)
Bears at a Glance:
Head coach Dave Aranda’s seat may be the hottest in the conference as the Bears look to rebound after two abysmal seasons in 2022 and 2023. The good news for Aranda is that transfers — in droves — have migrated to Waco as the program looks to revitalize itself behind former Toledo quarterback Dequann Finn. Three offensive linemen return along with five starting wide receivers from a year ago, providing Finn with choices and experience out of the backfield. On defense, the Bears will rely on a secondary returning 100% of its production from 2023, including anchor Caden Jenkins. Up front, a lot of turnover does harbor some concern, as only two of the front seven return, but veteran leader Matt Jones at linebacker is a stable presence for Aranda’s defense. There are a handful of winnable games on Baylor’s schedule this season, and if the Bears qualify for a bowl game behind a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, Aranda could very well keep his job for 2025.
QB Dequann Finn, RB Richard Reese, WR Monaray Baldwin, WR Ketron Jackson Jr., WR Josh Cameron, LB Matt Jones, CB Caden Jenkins
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10. Colorado, 5-7 (3-6)
Buffaloes at a Glance:
Built on the philosophy of “here for a good time not a long time,” the Deion Sanders-lead Colorado Buffaloes sprint into 2024 with a brand new offense (three returnees) and a retooled defense. The only three returning starters on offense, luckily, are the Buffs three best players; Sheduer Sanders, Travis Hunter, and Jimmy Horn Jr.. Nabbing Ohio State transfer back Dallan Hayden out of the portal adds some explosiveness, and five star tackle Jordan Seaton adds firepower on the offensive line. Still, the offensive line has never played a snap together, and it consists of five brand new players aged 19 to 23. On defense, the Buffs return seven starters to a unit that ranked 127th nationally in 2023. With some new faces on the boundary and up front, expect more physical teams (Nebraska, Baylor, etc.) to push around this Colorado team early in the season. Linebackers Trevor Woods and LaVonta Bentley look to command the front seven as Sanders and Hunter hold down the backend. Colorado will shock one team in the upper tier of the conference this season, whether it be K-State, Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma State, or Kansas (whom they all draw on their schedule).
QB Sheduer Sanders, RB Dallan Hayden, ATH Travis Hunter, WR Jimmy Horn Jr., T Jordan Seaton, T Kahlil Benson, LB LaVonta Bentley, LB Trevor Woods, S Shilo Sanders
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11. Texas Tech, 6-6 (3-6)
Red Raiders at a Glance:
A tale of two seasons for the Red Raiders in my 2024 projections. Starting off 5-0, Texas Tech plays zero teams that finished 2023 with a winning record, including the consensus two worst teams in the conference. After the hot start, TTU may very well end the season 1-6, with games @Arizona, @ISU, @OKST, and against Baylor, Colorado, and WVU. Now, the games against TCU, Colorado, and Baylor could very well be pick’ems, but looking down the roster for the Red Raiders, I don’t believe the talent matches that of Colorado nor Baylor, with only eight returning starters and almost no experience on the front seven. CJ Baskerville is an NFL talent at safety and Ben Roberts is an efficient tackler at linebacker, but the Red Raiders lack star power outside of the two veterans. On offense, Behren Morton must stay healthy for TTU to succeed, with a quarterback carousel plaguing the 2023 season. There are too many warning signs with Texas Tech that lead me to believe that the Red Raiders will disappoint in 2024.
RB Tahj Brooks, TE Jalin Conyers, TE Mason Tharp, WR Josh Kelly, G Vinny Sciury, G Davion Carter, LB Jacob Rodriguez, LB Ben Roberts, S CJ Baskerville
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12. TCU, 4-8 (3-6)
Horned Frogs at a Glance:
A bevy of weapons return to a Horn Frogs team that experienced a championship game hangover in 2023. Returnees at wide receiver include Savion Williams, Eric McAlister, JP Richardson, and Drake Dabney. On the other side of the ball, depth along the front seven — particularly linebacker — will make for a good rotation of run defenders for the Horned Frogs. The secondary loses three starters and will look to start fresh after finishing 110th nationally last season. The offensive line returns only two starters who may slide inside to play different positions this season. TCU’s chief concern, however, rests on the shoulders of Ken Seals at quarterback. The Vanderbilt transfer appears to have won the starting job over Josh Hoover, throwing for 1,183-11-4 last season. The schedule is not entirely favorable, with non-conference matchups at Stanford and SMU, and the in-conference slate including five of the top six projected teams. Sonny Dykes’s seat may be warming up in Fort Worth, and with a lack of production in 2024, could very well find himself out of a job come January.
WR Savion Williams, WR Eric McAlister, WR JP Richardson, TE Drake Dabney
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13. BYU, 4-8 (2-7)
Cougars at a Glance:
Defeating Houston in the clash of the Cougars in the final game of the season may be the highlight of BYU’s year, as Kalani Sitake’s squad rolls into 2024 with less than ideal expectations in Provo. Returning a little under 50% production from last season, BYU will need to rely on three returning offensive linemen and LJ Martin at runningback to find their identity on offense. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff steps in to replace Kedon Slovis as an unproven junior who struggled with interceptions in four starts last season. On defense, the Cougars will rely on veteran experience on all three levels to develop a defense that finished outside the top-100 nationally in 2023. Edge Tyler Batty, linebacker Ben Bywater, and cornerback Jakob Robinson are all experienced and three of just five starters returning on the unit. The schedule draws SMU, K-State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah, and Kansas in an eight game stretch — a daunting stretch for a BYU team that finished 5-7 last season.
RB LJ Martin, LB Ben Bywater, CB Jakob Robinson
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14. Houston, 2-10 (2-7)
Cougars at a Glance:
There are a few bright spots on this Houston squad despite their 2-10 projected record. Head coach Willie Fritz was hired from Tulane and is a true program builder, going 111-69 over his fifteen years of coaching. Quarterback Donovan Smith is an above average starter and receiver Joseph Manjack IV is a talent at wide receiver. Oh, and the uniforms are cool, too. That about wraps it up, however, as the cupboards were left pretty empty for Fritz in his first year in H-Town. Returning just six starters, Houston will rely on three underclassmen offensive linemen to rebuild an line now without Patrick Paul (NFL), and aside from the aforementioned Smith and Manjack, all other skill players are gone. On defense, two starters return (Morris, Haulcy), and will need to lead a defense that finished 112th in 2023 against Oklahoma in week two and Iowa State in week four. There is no pressure on Fritz to perform this season, as the Cougars enter a rebuild after a 4-8 2023.
QB Donovan Smith, RB Parker Jenkins, WR Joseph Manjack IV, LB Jamal Morris, S AJ Haulcy
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15. Cincinnati, 2-10 (1-8)
Bearcats at a Glance:
Coach Satterfield’s first year with the Bearcats went off the rails following a 2-0 start, cratering to 3-9. What didn’t implode on the Bearcats was a stable run game that ranked 5th in the nation last season, averaging 217.1 YPG. Returning almost every piece of the offensive line and runningback Corey Kiner will aid an offense that spiraled after a loss to Miami-Ohio in 2023 sent the Bearcats reeling. The defense returns anchor and potential All-American Dantay Corleone. Aside from that, Cincinnati ranks amongst the bottom in all statistical Big-XII categories, sitting with a win total of just 5.5. The schedule is not extremely challenging, but the Bearcats lack talent at almost every single defensive position and have a huge, walloping question mark at the quarterback position. Brendan Sorsby appears to be the guy, but with little to work with aside from receiver Xzavier Henderson, the Bearcats could very well be looking at another long year under Satterfield.
WR Xzavier Henderson, G Luke Kandra, DT Dontay Corleone, S Kyle Stokes
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16. Arizona State, 2-10 (0-9)
Sun Devils at a Glance:
Another second year Big-XII head coach is also amidst a rebuild, as Kenny Dillingham commands his Sun Devils into 2024 following a 3-9 2023. Arizona State is the only Power-4 team I project to go winless in conference play, finishing 0-9 and scraping by with wins against Wyoming and Texas State. There is, in my mind, real question as to whether or not ASU will actually beat either of the two G-5 teams, as the Bobcats look to contend for a Sun Belt title in their own right. The truth is, the Sun Devils don’t have the talent to contend in 2024, something that comes with time during a rebuild. The schedule is very, very difficult, drawing each of the top six projected teams as well as an SEC opponent in week two. Defensive back Shamari Simmons is a bright spot on a defense that is not horrible overall, finishing 89th nationally in 2023. The offense is a problem, as the Sun Devils look to recoup on a 17.8 PPG average last season.
RB Cam Skattebo, ED Clayton Smith, DT CJ Fite, ED Prince Dorbah, S Shamari Simmons
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