Michigan Quarterback JJ McCarthy; Maize n Brew

National Title Game

#1 Michigan (14-0) vs. #2 Washington (14-0)

Washington EDGE Bralen Trice; Skylar Lin Visuals

Fueled by Adversity and Under-appreciation, National Title Game Between Undefeated Foes Michigan and Washington Offers Epic Apex to Conclude 2023 Season.

Last edited 5th January 11:14 PM by JAKE

HOUSTON, TX — Monday night’s CFP National Title Game between No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington marks the end of a notable era in college football. Starting next year, the four team Playoff will be expanded to include twelve teams (including a Group-of-Five bid), meaning the race for the ever-so-coveted Playoff spots will be less tense. It also marks the end of an era for Washington, as the Huskies, along with conference rivals USC, UCLA, and Oregon migrate to the Big-10 to meet Michigan on a yearly, division-less basis starting next season. This re-alignment allows for a National Title game rematch in 2024, as the two teams meet in Husky Stadium in October of next year. This season, however, the two meet in college football’s final examination; the National Championship. 

In this article: RUNDOWN, HISTORY, X-FACTORS, THE PICK

Washington receievers Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk waltz into the end zone; Washington Athletics

The History

There have been eight previous meetings between Michigan and Washington dating back to 1953. Michigan leads the series 8-5, with wins in each of the last two meetings dating back to 2002. The most recent meeting was in 2021, where Michigan trounced a Penix-less Huskies team 31-10 en route to their first CFP appearance. The last Washington win came in 2001.

What’s at Stake

This is Michigan’s first National Title appearance since 1997, a game which they won. The Wolverines are fresh off their first CFP win and look to capture their 12th title all-time on Monday. This will be Washington’s first appearance since 1991. The Huskies have a record of 1-1 in the CFP, including a loss to Alabama in 2016. Washington has claimed two titles as a team, 1960 and 1991 respectively. A win here will restore glory to two historical programs but down programs as of recent.

The Breakdown

Michigan opened as a four-point favorite in this game, with the line since increasing to Michigan -4.5. The Wolverines, lead by junior quarterback JJ McCarthy and senior runningback Blake Corum, enter the game as the nation’s top ranked team and have not lost since the TCU debacle in the CFP Seminfinal last season. The weapons at McCarthy’s disposal are formidable, with tight end Colston Loveland emerging as a possible first round pick in next year’s draft, and wide receivers Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson both toutinh over 550 yards receiving, combining for 13 touchdowns. Michigan’s backbone is still the run game, however, leaning on a smashmouth offensive line (including starters — and first team All Big-10 selections — Karsen Barnhart, Drake Nugent and Trevor Keegan) to open up holes the tune of 2,233 yards on a 61% run frequency (17th in the nation). Starter and All-American guard Zak Zinter was lost for the season just over a month ago, and since his departure, the Maize and Blue have pummeled both Iowa and Alabama for 213 and 351 yards, respectively. Aside from the evident off field drama for the Wolverines this season, the most consistent part of this team is it’s defense. Failing to give up more than 20 points just twice (Maryland, Ohio State), the Wolverines did not allow more than one touchdown to be scored against them until November 11th in a nine-point win over Penn State. The defensive front is one of the most ferocious in the country, anchored by the interior play of Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins, and Kenneth Grant. Linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett both made the All Big-10 team, and the secondary is safeguarded by the outstanding play of Will Johnson, Rod Moore, and Mike Sanristil. The Wolverine offense is efficient on third down, ranking 23rd in the nation with a 44.8% conversion rate, and total 378.4 yards-per-game. Runningbacks Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards take stress off of McCarthy as a passer, as seen by his 7/8, 60-yard statline against Penn State in November. The passing game is not anything to sneeze at either, as an average of .571 points per play keep opposing defenses on their heels. This is a Michigan team who rarely ever makes mistakes, having an anaconda type play style that looks to suffocate the opponent by slow, methodical drives and smothering defense with a unit giving up an average of 10.6 PPG. Their +1.2 turnover ratio per game ranks first in the nation, and nobody has created more turnovers the last three games of the season than the Wolverines. They average 6.0 yards-per-play, and only allow 4.1, holding opponents to a meager 30.22% of third downs convereted. This is an intense, prideful, and intimidating team to play, winning games by an average of 25.8 PPG.

Washington’s outlook and play style could not be any different than their eastern-opponent’s. Averaging 37.64 PPG, the Huskies rely on their aerial-assault to boatrace opponents. Led by captain and fifth-year senior Michael Penix Jr., the Huskies utilize the trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan to terrorize opponents with the downfield passing game. Totaling 4,900 passing yards (350.0 YPG), Washington’s Penix has thrown 37 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions on 523 attempts (66%), two of which were included in the team’s surgical detonation of the Texas defense last Monday night. Penix started 22/24 and threw for two touchdowns as Washington led/pushed wire to wire against the Longhorns. The offensive line for the Huskies will be the best that Michigan has faced all season, as the Joe Moore Award recipients have allowed just 21 sacks on 523 drop-backs, a 4% pressure rate (good for best in the nation). Starters Troy Fataunu and Roger Rosengarten secure the outside as one of the nation’s top tackle duos, and guard Nathan Kelpo Jr. has put together a solid season up to this point. On play action, something the Huskies use on 30.7% of their dropbacks, Penix has thrown for 12 touchdowns, no interceptions, completed 74.5% of his passes, and has thrown at an average depth of target of over 11 yards (!). Not to mention that, according to advanced statisics, Penix gets the ball off at an average of 2.65 seconds. But how has this elite play-action game developed from a team that is not a statistical-zenith running the football? Runningback Dillon Johnson, transfer from Mississippi State, has the unique ability to stretch defenses thin through his outside zone and pitch-play threats, forcing teams to load the box in anticipation of a a run on third and short. Washington is ranked 15th in run blocking in America, but 22nd in rush yards amongst power-five teams. Once the box-loading has happened most teams revert to a standard cover zero/cover two, which opens up massive holes for Polk and Odunze to soar through downfield. When kept clean in the pocket, Penix has thrown 15 touchdowns of 20+ yards while throwing at an average depth of target of 33.4 yards, always reminding defenses of the explosive ability of the deep passing game. But what about this infamous Husky defense? Led by athletic freak Bralen Trice off the edge, the Husky defense generates good pressure from their four man front. Aided by fellow edge rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui, the Huskies rank 20th in pass rushing nationally, and 32nd in run defense. The Huskies struggle to stop the interior run game, a strong point of the Wolverine offensive attack, and may need to cram the box and trust cornerbacks Jabbar Muhammad and Elijah Jackson on islands.

Michigan IDL Kris Jenkins; Maize n Brew

The X-Factors and Keys to Victory

Michigan: For the Wolverines to win, the recipe is simple; run the football. Michigan has lived by the running game all season long, and if they’re willing to live by the sword, they must be willing to die by the sword. Getting away from the run game is not something that would benefit the Wolverines, as that would mean speeding the game up and giving more possessions to Washington — advantage Huskies. Leaning on the future NFL-duo of Corum and Edwards, like they have all season long, will carry the Maize and Blue to victory. McCarthy needs to be on time and accurate when he throws the ball, and OC Sherrone Moore may want to scheme a handful of counters with McCarthy to keep the ball-hunting and hasty-reading Husky linebackers on their toes. I predict a big receiving day for one of the two tight ends, Loveland or Barner, as Washington struggled to slow down Texas’ JaTavion Sanders last week. On defense, the Wolverines must keep everything in front of, but not drop 6+ into coverage every play. Applying pressure to Penix will throw him off his game, and while playing Washington in man coverage is never the right thing to do, Michigan can get away with it. The cornerback duo of Johnson and Sanristil as well as the excellent emerging play of Rod Moore will contain the UDub receivers for at least a second or two, which is all that the Michigan front should need to get home.

Washington: To say the Huskies are playing calm, relaxed football is an understatement. All of the pressure is on Michigan — the number one ranked, highly criticized Big-10 team — not the swan-song PAC-12 team that frankly, should not even be in this position. Penix and the offense will attempt to do what the have done all season; outside focused running plays and high percentage, outside the numbers throws to their NFL-trio of wide receivers. My keys for the U of Dub offense? Get tight end Jack Westover involved. The senior pass catcher has recorded 391 yards this season, but was a stud in both games against Oregon and Texas. With the threat of Johnson off the edge in the run game, the Michigan linebackers will be sweeping laterally to get to the sideline. Sneaking Westover up the seam or through the middle of the field will open up the Husky offense. On defense, Getting the safety duo of Dominique Hampton and Kamren Fabiculanan involved will be key. Screwing down one of the safeties every play may in the cards for the Dawgs, as stopping the Wolverrine run game will be of utmost importance. Both are capable tacklers and drive shorter routes down field well.

The Pick:

My Record in 2023-2024 Bowl Games: 34-8 Record Picking Washington This Season: 12-2 Record Picking Michigan This Season: 14-0

Something has to give here. Picking Washington is picking the under’dawg’, and picking Michigan is taking the better on paper team. The Dawgs have been the underdog in four of the their last five games, winning them all, showcasing their even temperament as a unit. The Wolverines had not looked vulnerable until the third quarter of the Alabama game, while Washington lives in close games and tight quarters. Considering all of these factors, I have decided to go with  Washington in this game, judging as great quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and DeShaun Watson have led teams past goliaths with their own play; and that’s what I believe Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will do to the Michigan defense.