2024 College Football Playoff Predictions;
The more that changes, the more that stays the same; predicting where the top “dawgs” will land come January.
Jake McCreven
4 August 2024
Cataclysmic shifts ripple their way through the college football landscape as an unprecedented twelve teams will now have an opportunity to compete for the National Title starting in 2024. Gone are the days of the four best squads duking it out in a total of three games, as now eleven games will need to be played in order to crown a champion come January. With the expansion of the Playoff, teams playing in the first round of games will now get to host a CFP game at their home venue before visiting neutral sites for the remainder of the tournament.
Predicting the Group-of-Five Bid;
New College Football Playoff Rules state that the five highest ranked conference champions will secure an automatic bid to the Playoff. With the PAC-XII’s dissolution last off-season, a void opens which gives room for a “Group-of-Five” team to swoop in and steal a ticket. Conference’s in the G-5 include the American (AAC), Mountain West (MWC), Conference USA (C-USA), Sun Belt (SBC), and Mid-American (MAC). With only one team — guaranteed — to qualify out of the G-5, the bid will be highly coveted, and non-conference games become exponentially more important (especially against higher-tiered opponents). Below are three of the early betting favorites to pocket the automatic-qualifier, as well as our pick.
Liberty Flames
Conference: C-USA
2023 Record: 13-1
Con:
Could very well go 13-0 and not qualify due to weakness of conference and schedule.
Pro:
Quarterbacked by Kaidon Salter who is a darkhorse Heisman candidate and experienced leader.
Memphis Tigers
Conference: AAC
2023 Record: 10-3
Pro:
Play at the highest-level of G-5 and return loads of experience and talent, including Seth Henigan.
Con:
Schedule is tough, particularly in the non-con and with games against Tulane and USF.
Boise State Broncos
Conference: MWC
2023 Record: 8-6
Pro:
Most talented roster of any G-5 team, including Ashton Jeanty, one of the best runningbacks in the country.
Con:
Draws a very tough non-conference slate which may hinder chances of perfect record.
The Twelve Team Field; Blue Bloods, New Bloods, and a Whole Lot Else
With eight additional teams being added to the College Football Playoff field this year, an even heavier influence is now being placed on conference standing and conference championship bids. The four highest ranked conference champions will secure automatic first round byes, being presumably the champions from the “Power-Four” conferences (SEC, ACC, Big-12, Big-10). The fifth highest ranked conference champion (from the aforementioned Group-of-Five list) will clinch an automatic bid anywhere from the No. 5 to the No. 12 seeds.
1. Georgia Bulldogs* (13-0)
‣ SEC Champion, wins over Texas, Alabama (x2), Ole Miss, Clemson, Tennessee, Auburn
2. Ohio State* (12-1)
‣ Big-Ten Champion, wins over Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Nebraska
3. Oklahoma State* (13-0)
‣ Big-12 Champion, wins over Utah, Kansas State (x2), West Virginia
4. Florida State* (12-1)
‣ ACC Champion, wins over Clemson, Memphis, Miami
5. Oregon (12-1)
‣ Big-10 Runner-up, wins over Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
‣ Wins over Kentucky, LSU, Florida
7. Notre Dame (12-0)
‣ Wins over Texas A&M, USC, Florida State
8. Alabama (11-2)
‣ SEC Runner-up, wins over Wisconsin, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Auburn
9. Texas (11-1)
‣ Wins over Michigan, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M
10. NC State (11-1)
‣ Wins over Tennessee, Cal, North Carolina
11. Miami (10-2)
‣ Wins over Florida, Virginia Tech, Louisville
12. Memphis* (12-1)
‣ AAC Champion, wins over USF, Tulane (x2)
The Bracket:
No. 9 Texas (11-1) at No. 8 Alabama (11-2);
A rematch of 2022 which saw Texas and Quinn Ewers go into Tuscaloosa and defeat the Tide. Defeating Alabama two times in a row (in Bryant-Denny) is a tall task, and despite Texas’ immensely talented roster, the Tide are leveraged perfectly in this scenario.
No. 12 Memphis (12-1) at No. 5 Oregon (12-1);
Despite Seth Henigan and Memphis’ projected 12-1 season, the Ducks are a juggernaut that — in these projections— just fell short of the number two overall seed. The Tigers shrivel in comparison to one of the best rosters in America.
No. 8 Alabama (12-2) vs. No. 1 Georgia (13-0);
Beating any team three times in one year is an arduous task, especially considering the team being discussed is Alabama. But the Dawgs, despite off-season locker room concerns, are still the best built football team in the nation, and off of a first round bye will be more fresh than the Tide.
No. 5 Oregon (13-1) vs. No. 4 Florida St. (12-1);
The worst ranked conference champion matches up with the highest ranked non-conference champion. If this were a home game for the Seminoles, it would be more tempting to pick Mike Norvell and company, but considering that Oregon, who by default has a better roster than FSU, will be coming off of a relatively easy game against Memphis, would be meeting the Noles on a neutral site, picking the Ducks becomes rather simple.
No. 10 NC State (11-1) at No. 7 Notre Dame (12-0);
The Irish will be fresh off of a double bye week and undefeated regular season behind a stellar defense and Riley Leonard-led offense; a safe pick in South Bend.
No. 11 Miami (10-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1);
An intriguing offensive matchup in Oxford sees Cam Ward and the re-imagined Miami Hurricanes meet Jaxson Dart and the garish Rebels passing attack. If the game turns into a shootout (which it very well could), the Rebels would more than likely come out on top.
No. 7 Notre Dame (13-0) vs. No. 2 Ohio St. (12-1);
The Buckeyes have never lost to Notre Dame (6-0) and would meet for a projected seventh time in the quarterfinals here. Ohio State would be fresh off a bye while Notre Dame would be coming off a first round game against the Wolfpack. Following last year’s drama in South Bend, this would be a compelling matchup for both schools.
No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1) vs. No. 3 Oklahoma St. (13-0);
A one-loss SEC foe will travel into Stillwater to take on the unbeaten Big-XII champion. Despite Oklahoma State’s 21 returning starters and All-American back in Ollie Gordon II, Ole Miss is a tougher, more battle tested team that has experienced winning at a higher level than the Pokes.
The Semi-Final Matchups:
No. 5 Oregon (14-1) vs. No. 1 Georgia (14-0)
Luckily for Georgia, there are only two rosters/coaching staffs that can lineup with the Bulldogs on a down-for-down basis and actually contend for an entire game. Unluckily for Georgia in these projections, they matchup with both of those rosters in back-to-back weeks. Oregon and Alabama would take a toll on a Georgia team that wold have already braved the water’s of the SEC’s toughest schedule, and with a fiery Dan Lanning at the helm in Eugene and one of college football’s all time leading passers in Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks may be the team to dethrone the Dawgs with improved line play and stout defensive scheming in the Big-10.
No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (13-1)
The third place finisher in the SEC matches up with the Big-10 champion for a spot in the National Championship Game; the pinnacle of the conference realignment boat race that occurred this off-season. Ole Miss would be coming off wins against both Miami and Oklahoma State, while Ohio State would be fresh off a win against the Irish. Both rosters are chalk full of talent at every position, but the advantage swings the Buckeye’s way due to the sheer amount of depth — particularly on defense — in Columbus. The great offenses in college football over recent history always reach the mountain top but can never plant the flag (Oklahoma 2016-2019, USC 2021-2022, Washington 2023, etc.), which leads the pick to be OSU.
The National Championship Game:
No. 5 Oregon (15-1):
2023 Record: 12-2 (Fiesta Bowl Win)
2024 Projected Record: 12-0
Returning Starters: 10 (6/4)
Returning Production: 28th (69%)
Key Additions: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Evan Stewart, DT Jamaree Caldwell
No. 2 Ohio State (14-1):
2023 Record: 11-2
2024 Projected Record: 11-1
Returning Starters: 15 (6/9)
Returning Production: 70th (61%)
Key Additions: QB Will Howard, RB Quinshon Judkins, WR Jeremiah Smith, IOL Seth McLaughlin, S Caleb Downs
*Full prediction/analysis of the matchup to come soon!
Two teams meeting a combined three times in one year is an unprecedented circumstance in college football, made possible only by the new Playoff format and intensive conference realignment push. Oregon and Ohio State hail both from the Big-10 conference, which would make this matchup just the third time in CFP history that both teams draw from the same league. These season-long projections predict, in the first two games, Oregon to beat Ohio State in Eugene in early October, and the Buckeyes to defeat the Ducks in the Big-10 Championship game in mid-December. On paper, the rosters for both schools are arguably the best in the country, laden with five star talent on all levels of the field. The coaching staffs, led by Dan Lanning (Oregon) and Ryan Day (Ohio State), have recruited masterfully
in order to prepare for a title push in 2024. The Buckeyes’ last title appearance was in 2020 (a loss to Alabama), perpetuating a now decade long drought in Columbus without a championship (2014 vs. Oregon). The Ducks enter 2024 not qualifying for the College Football Playoff since it’s inaugural season in 2014. To say that 2024 is a pressure cooker for both teams would be an understatement. For the prediction, I am opting to go with the Buckeyes and Ryan Day, piloted by journeyman quarterback Will Howard and a firework display of an offense. The rosters are about even with the exception of one position battle, which ultimately swayed things in favor of the Buckeyes. Oregon’s defensive line is not as supremely talented as the Buckeyes’ interior offensive line, aiding the Buckeyes in their attempts to run the ball to a National Championship.