Samford Center Achor Achor; Samford Athletics

Samford Center Achor Achor; Samford Athletics

Finding Cinderella Before She’s at the Ball: A Comprehensive Guide to Everything March Madness

The 68 remaining teams contending for a National Title offer over 9.2 quintillion bracket combinations. That means you are more likely to:

  • Win an Oscar

  • Become the President of the United States

  • Win Powerball

  • Be audited by the IRS

  • Die to a swarm of bees on exactly May 16th

Than you are to predict the NCAA Tournament perfectly. Still, though, I can help you with your bracketology using some statistical evidence and well known pros of some of the sleeping giants.

The Problem With Each of the Top-Sixteen Seeds in March Madness: How to be Pessimistic 101

UConn: Can allow mid-range game to kill them, although not an egregious flaw, something to look out for.

Iowa State: Lack of offensive fire power, reliant on defense.

Illinois: Off the court issues surrounding Terrance Shannon and extreme defensive concerns.

Auburn: Struggle to beat teams better than them, although they can dominate teams worse than them.

North Carolina: Very old group that sometimes gets too “ball-hoggish”. Can get stuck in their ways.

Arizona: Nearly the same roster that lost first round last season plus Caleb Love — the polarizing Caleb Love.

Baylor: Defensive concerns regarding three point shooting, can fall behind early to good shooting teams.

Alabama: SEC defense complex. Gaping holes in defensive scheme leave a lot to be desired.

Houston: Lopsided, defensive focused team with the ability to fall flat on their face on offense.

Marquette: Concerning health and team chemistry issues regarding Tyler Kolek — they need him to win.

Kentucky: Extreme lack of any sort of defensive efficiency, ranking in the bottom ten in most defensive metrics across all CBB.

Duke: New-ish head coach with a tendency to lose track of his gameplan late in games.

Purdue: Defensive consistency and one dimensional offensive style make Purdue predictable.

Tennessee: Rick Barnes has proven to be a less than ideal big game coach, never being able to take this team over the edge.

Creighton: Live by the sword, die by the sword. When they make their shots, Creighton can beat anyone, when they miss, they miss badly.

Kansas: Flat out awful play as of late, concering injuries to key players, lack of offensive production.

Evaluating the Double Digit Seeds: Who is Most Likely to Upset in Round One?

#15 South Dakota State

I am by no means predicting the Jackrabbits to upset #2 Iowa State on Thursday, but SDSU is probably the best overall #15 seed and offers the most upset potential due to their fast paced style of play. A 15 seed has advanced at least to the Sweet 16 each of the last three tournaments, and if that trend were to continue, I would not be shocked if SDSU is that team.

#13 Samford

The Bulldogs have only lost five games all year and plowed through the SoCon with relative ease. Led by stout center Achor Achor, Samford offers major upset potential against an injury-ridden, dysfunctional Kansas squad who will be without Hunter Dickinson as he deals with a shoulder injury. Samford will attempt to quicken the game, scoring the 5th most PPG in all of CBB and shooting the ball at the 8th highest rate in the country to this point. This Samford team matches up almost identically with Furman from last season (who beat Virginia as a #13), and is battle-tested against Power-6 competition.

#13 Charleston

The Cougars may actually be able to keep pace with Alabama, with an average of over 80 PPG and ranking in the top twenty percent in game pace to turnover ratio metrics. Charleston is 20-0 when scoring 79+, and Alabama allows… 81.1 PPG. Super unbalanced teams never fair well in March, evident from Purdue’s collapse last season as well as Kansas and Houston.

#12 McNeese State

Probably the most well known upset pick this March, the Cowboys are one of four teams to win 30+ games and have stats and names to back up their upset-hopes. Since 1985, 53 twelve seeds have beaten five seeds in the first round, and with former Power-6 head coach Will Wade running the show down in Lake Charles, McNeese seems almost poised to make some noise against Gonzaga. Shahada Wells is a proven three-level scorer (at guard), and leads an elite shooting arsenal who has corked out the 9th best 3PT% in America to go along with a +6.7 turnover margin (that is very, very good). The defense is also elite, ranking 4th in PPG allowed out of 362, and barely ever allowing three point shots.

#12 James Madison

James Madison is another 30+ win team who tore through their conference tournament to claim their ticket in the last week. JMU has a battle-tested, proven resumé, including wins over Michigan State and even a three week stint in the AP Top 25. The Dukes score just about 85 PPG, utilizing a high paced offense (a style known to succeed with Cinderellas), and a 38% 3PT mark, good for 49th out of 362. Guard Terrance Edwards Jr. is another proven bucket-getter, averaging 17.4 PPG as a 6’6 point guard. Wisconsin is hot off a run which ended with a B1G Championship loss to Illinois, but before that, the Badgers had lost 13 games in two months, meaning Wisconsin is a streaky, unpredictable team: stay away from them.

#12 Grand Canyon

Tyon Grant-Foster is an NBA-caliber wing with the ability to soundly carry a team on his shoulders. Great Cinderella teams always have their “guy”: someone who can win them games single handily. Grand Canyon was the second team to hit 20 wins in all of CBB, utilizing a staunch defensive philosophy to smother opponents and isolate Grant-Foster on the wing. The Lopes are proven tournament-veterans, appearing in three of the last four tournaments. This current roster is the culmination of all the teams before them, and with a veteran-led, deep team, GCU may be able to make noise come Friday.

#11 New Mexico

An eleven seed for the MWC Champions? Feels a little low. New Mexico tore through the Mountain West (a conference sending six teams to March Madness), relying on the stout play of Donovan Dent and Jaelen House. JT Toppin and Jamal Mashburn Jr. are two excellent options down low, providing the Lobos with one of the deepest starting lineups in all of CBB. New Mexico has beaten SDSU, Colorado State (2), Boise State, Nevada (2), and Utah State en route to their best record in two decades. The Lobos rank 23rd in Kenpom, 22nd in NET, and have a 5-6 Quad-One record. Consistency in analytics usually signifies that a team is sound and will play steady basketball no matter the day.

#11 NC State

The Wolfpack won five games in five days, beating two in-state rivals en route to their ACC Championship and automatic bid to the tournament. While its fun to glamorize DJ Burns Jr. and the tenacity of this Wolfpack team as of late, I personally am staying away from NC State. Even with two days rest, one of those days will be a travel day. Five games in five days drains more than physical stamina, its drains the mental battery as well. NC State is running on low in the emotional gas tank, and while the feel-good story is fun to laugh at, I’m out on the Wolfpack this March.

#10 Nevada

Yes, the Wolfpack lost their opener in the MWC Tournament, but Nevada is one of the most consistent teams in all of college basketball. Jarod Lucas averages over 17 PPG and Kenan Blackshear is an NBA-talent. The Wolfpack have feature wins over CSU (2), SDSU, Utah State, and TCU, ranking ahead of New Mexico in almost every category, including Quad-One record (6-6), KPI, and NET. This is a Nevada team who has lost just four times since the first week of the New Year, marking them as one of the most consistent squads in the country, and a darkhorse to make an Elite Eight run.

Quick Bracket Facts: Reasons to Speculate Over Your Chalky Bracket

  • A #15 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 each of the last three years.

  • Only once since 2000 has the Final Four included three #1 seeds.

  • Every champion since 1985 has reached the Semi-Finals of their conference tournament.

  • A team has not repeated as champions in 17 years (Florida).

  • Every champion in the last 21 years has been ranked inside the top-twelve in the Week 6 AP Poll (Arizona, Kansas, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Baylor, Marquette, Creighton, UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee).

  • No national champion has ever lost four consecutive games in a season (Wisconsin).

  • No national champion has ever come from a conference with less than four teams in the tournament (Big East, AAC, WCC).

Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman: Creighton Athletics

New Mexico’s Jaelen House: SD-UT

  • Every national champion since 1985 has been inside the KENPOM Top-25. Here is the link to those rankings: https://kenpom.com/. Each of the last 18 champions have been inside the top-six.

  • #4 Seeds have never lost in the first round when inside the KENPOM Top-10 (Auburn, Duke).

  • #4 Seeds with a KENPOM ranking outside the Top-20 are 12-11 all time (Kansas).

  • 15 of the last 20 champions have entered the tournament top three in offensive efficiency (UConn, Alabama, Illinois).

  • Only 8/173 mid-major teams with top-ten seeds have reached the Final Four (not named Gonzaga).

  • Since 1989, only 16/140 Final Four teams were seeded lower than #6.

  • A top-two seed to begin the season unranked as never made the Final Four (Iowa State).

  • Since 1989, only only three champions have been seeded lower than #3.

  • In 8v9 games, the underdog AGAINST THE SPREAD is 54-32 in the last 33 years.

  • Only once has a First Four team not won at least one game in the NCAA Tournament.

  • #11 Seeds are 26-26 since 2011.