2024 Preview
Superlatives:
Best Overall Team: Boise State
Best Overall Player: Tyson Degenhart, BSU
Best Shooter: Xavier DuSell, Nevada
Best Defenseman: Tre Coleman, Nevada
Sleeper Team (Conference): SDSU
Sleeper Team (March): UNLV
Boise State forward Tyson Degenhart; Boise State Athletics
1. Boise State Broncos
2023 Record: 22-11
Behind its two offensive linchpins, the Broncos were able to cruise to a 14-4 Mountain West record and first place finish. Although its tournament run ended prematurely, Boise State brings back both of its two best scorers in Tyson Degenhart and O’Mar Stanley, forming once again one of the best frontcourts in the MWC. The Broncos are a physical offensive attack capable of controlling the boards and slowing the tempo, and are tenacious on the defensive glass, ranking first in the conference in OR% allowed in 2023.
Looking to patch the holes formed by the departure of multiple backcourt starters, coach Leon Rice turned to the portal and plucked versatile San Jose State Guard Alvaro Cardenas from the Spartans and will look for Andrew Meadow to step into a larger role after impressing as a freshman. The Broncos also swayed former Arizona big Dylan Anderson to join the ranks of Degenhart and Stanley down low, forming one of the gnarliest rotations in the conference.
2. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
2023 Record: 21-13
The return of all-league caliber guard Dedan Thomas Jr. was a huge break for the Runnin’ Rebels, who finished 10-2 down the stretch last season and piloted one of the MWC’s best defenses. Thomas is a three level scorer and team leader who averaged 13.7 points per night as the primary ball handler in his freshman season. Surrounding the phenom with help and trusting in returning starters to develop was the agenda for coach Kevin Kruger this off season. Transfers Jailen Bedford and Jace Whiting will shoulder some of the scoring when Thomas is not on the court.
The Runnin’ Rebels must improve from behind the arc in 2024 to justify this ranking, as a dreadful 32.2% outing last season opted opponents to cram the box and force the Rebels to win ugly. As UNLV searches for a presence down low, improving on the defensive glass will be paramount, as getting the ball back in Thomas’ hands is key to the success of the offense.
3. New Mexico Lobos
2023 Record: 26-10
Losing three top players will sting the Lobos in the short term, but it will open up opportunities in the long term to feature explosive young talent that sat most of last year. The leader, junior guard Donovan Dent, will step into a feature scoring role after receiving second team All-MWC last season. Physical center Nelly Junior Joseph will be one of the conference’s best rebounders, and secondary guard Tru Washington will look to step into a starting role in 2024.
The Lobos were a popular pick last March to upset Clemson and make a run to the Sweet 16. They then lost to the Tigers, who swiftly made an Elite Eight appearance. What killed the Lobos last season was a lack of shooting consistency offensively and playing pocketed defense that occasionally gave up large runs to put away games. Establishing consistency in one of the nation’s most chaotic conferences will be challenging, but nonetheless rewarding for last season’s MWC Champion.
4. Nevada Wolfpack
2023 Record: 26-8
The Wolfpack ran rampant over Dayton in the first half of a first round NCAA Tournament game before slowly deteriorating and eventually losing to the Flyers and the arc of Koby Brea. Back from that team are a handful of familiar faces, including Nick Davidson and Tre Coleman as staples of a proven offensive attack. There are a few notable transfer additions, including Oklahoma State’s Justin McBride and Fresno State’s Xavier DuSell, both of which can have immediate impacts for a team looking to replace 33 points a game.
Nevada oftentimes found themselves in trouble on defense by getting into foul trouble and struggling to defend from behind the arc. With the addition of DuSell and the return of Coleman, the Wolfpack are primed for a progression. Nevada will need a proven scoring threat in the backcourt to emerge, especially with the departure of Jarod Lucas.
5. Utah State Aggies
2023 Record: 28-7
As the program’s fourth coach in six years, new head man Jerrod Calhoun coaxed three starters to return from last year’s Round of 32 team in Logan to build on an already strong foundation. Center Isaac Johnson will be a tentpole down low as the team’s main rebounding presence, with returning guards Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev working on the perimeter. Central Arkansas transfer Tucker Anderson will step into a scoring role on the wing as the Aggies look to replenish one of the best shooting teams in the conference from a year ago.
Utah State sported a dynamic, three level offense under now-Washington coach Danny Sprinkle, something that will in all likelihood change under Calhoun. His Youngstown State teams were a bastion of three point shooting, relying on the long ball almost entirely on offense. expect Johnson to be a rebounding machine down low and each of the rotating guards to shoot multiple three pointers a game.
6. San Diego State Aztecs
2023 Record: 26-11
The saying “never doubt Brian Dutcher” may come back to bite me, as a lowly sixth place projection would be good for the Aztecs’ worst conference seeding in seven years. A lot left the program this off season, whether for the NBA or through the portal, effectively erasing Dutcher’s national-runner up squad from 2022-2023. The lone returner is Reese Waters, but Dutcher did well in the portal, with key names such as Nick Boyd and Jared Coleman-Jones deciding to stop in San Diego for one year rentals.
The Aztecs were streaky on offense last season, which explains its fifth place regular season finish. Problems with turnovers and consistency from behind the arc plagued Dutcher’s team and eventually led to a tournament loss to juggernaut Connecticut. In order to contend in 2024, the Aztecs must fit together early and dive into a chaotic conference slate with momentum.
7. Colorado State Rams
2023 Record: 25-11
Similarly to most other Mountain West teams this off season, the Rams lost a lot, not in volume, but in leadership. Point guard Isaiah Stevens exhausted his eligibility and will now leave CSU at the hands of unproven commodities such as Kyan Evans and Jalen Lake. Returner Nique Clifford opted to stay in Fort Collins and offers a building block for coach Niko Medved to form the rest of the team around.
The Rams will be in search of a new primary scorer with the departure of Stevens, who piloted the offense as one of the more experienced ball handlers in the conference last season. Pressure forms around Evans’ ability to succeed the all-time Ram great, which may lead to problems down the road. With a stable presence in Clifford on the wing, the Rams will contend with the big boys of the conference, but until the rest of the newcomers grow into their bodies, expect CSU to regress ahead of 2024.
8. Air Force Falcons
2023 Record: 9-22
One of the more experienced teams in the MWC, the Falcons are looking ahead to 2024 after finishing at a lowly 9-22 last season. Air Force returns three starters, including high-ceiling Ethan Taylor at guard and the tenacious Beau Becker on the wing. With that being said, Air Force still lacks the top end talent required to compete in the MWC and will more than likely stay in the basement of the conference in 2024. Until the offense blossoms and the defense buckles down against the three, the Falcons will seldom find success.
9. San Jose State Spartans
2023 Record: 9-23
Most of the Spartans’ backcourt production is gone from last season, including the dangerous Cardenas to Boise State, as San Jose State looks to get off the mat of a 9-23 record last season. There are returnees, such as Robert Vaihola and Adrame Diongue, as well as top returning scorer Latrell Davis. A transfer heavy class will have to step into crucial roles early, especially ones on the wing and down low as a rebounder.
10. Wyoming Cowboys
2023 Record: 15-17
The entire roster is brand new, including the coaching staff — reminiscent of last season’s Utah State team — which gives me a bad feeling about this projection. Its better to be safe than sorry, however, and with the amount of unfamiliarity amongst the Cowboys, I feel justified in a 10th place ranking. Jordan Nesbitt is one of my favorite transfer-ins, with a sizable frame and scoring ability from inside the arc.
11. Fresno State Bulldogs
2023 Record: 12-21
The key returnee is point guard Jalen Weaver, who will take on the brunt of the scoring for a Bulldogs team looking to get back on track following a messy past half decade. All other key players from last season’s team vanished this off season following the coaching change. The Bulldogs will rely on a bevy of junior college and D-II transfers to compete in one of the most bloodthirsty conferences in America in 2024 — a recipe for disaster.