Tennessee forward Dalton Knecht dribbles past UNC defender Seth Trimble; The Daily Beacon
The Weighing Game: Judging How Likely Each Top Ten Team is to Win the National Championship.
February 27th, 2024, at 3:41 PM
Jake McCreven, Lead Staff Writer.
With just one week remaining until conference tournaments kick off in the ASUN, Horizon League, and Sun Belt, Power-6 teams buckle in for their final three regular season games of the year. As of today (Tuesday, February 27th), the AP Poll for Week 17 contains three Big-XII teams, two Big East and ACC squads, and one from each of the PAC-XII, SEC, and BIG-10. The Big-XII has dominated the polls all year long, and may very well send up to nine teams to the NCAA Tournament: road wins are few and far between, and runs of 8+ may cost a team the game. Yet three teams remain inside the top ten of the AP Poll, an attestation of the grit required to play in the Big-XII. Even with six losses, Iowa State has a strong case for the conference’s best team, with the same applying to Kansas. Here, we look to explore the likelihood of each top ten team’s chances of cutting down the nets in Arizona this April, with a short analysis being provided for each school.
1.
Houston, 24-3 (11-3)
Likelihood: As likely as its ever been.
Joining a Power-6 conference was a massive leap for a Houston team who made their name off of good records against inferior AAC opponents. In case you haven’t noticed, Houston is still one of the best teams in all of college basketball, sporting a three loss record at the end of February. Guard Jamal Shead is one of the nation’s best, and leading scorer LJ Cryer provides a nuclear weapon for the Cougars from three. Aided by the defensive play of Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts, the Cougars once again sport the country’s best defense (56.1 PPG). With wins coming against the likes of Dayton, @BYU, Iowa State, and @Baylor, Houston sports one of the best resumes in the country as well. Houston is the number one ranked team for a reason, as the Cougars’ raw athleticism, discipline, talent, and hustle have birthed one of the program’s best seasons in school history.
Guard Jamal Shead; The Chron
2.
Purdue, 25-3 (14-3)
Likelihood: Same old Purdue, unless…
Lance Jones’ transfer from Southern Illinois has catapulted this Purdue team over the offensive edge. Jones offers a third option for the Boilermakers, drawing attention away from Zach Edey and Braden Smith. When he’s on; Purdue’s on. When he’s off; Purdue’s off. Jones is the ultimate X-factor for the Boilermakers, who will most likely win the BIG-10 and be slated as one seed in March Madness yet again. Edey is an all-world level center but struggled last season when the help around him collapsed during Purdue’s game with FDU, so getting Jones involved is immediate for the perpetually underwhelming Boilermakers. Do I think they will win it? Maybe, but a trip to the Final Four is in the cards. Despite three losses (all in conference), Purdue sports one of the strongest starting lineups in all of basketball, and I believe this is the year they finally break through to the Final Four.
Guard Lance Jones; KGNS
3.
UConn, 25-3 (15-2)
Likelihood: The most capable team of repeating since Florida in 06-07.
To say that UConn has avoided the “Championship Hangover” is an understatement. The Huskies spent the off-season in a sobriety clinic, meeting new friends like Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer and welcoming the emergence of guard Tristan Newton into the re-birth of the UConn dynasty. When Connecticut plays at the height of their game they’re virtually unbeatable. There are too many weapons to account for on offense, with Spencer slashing his way through the lane, Clingan reaping on the boards, shooters Newton, Karaban, and the ever-so enticing Stephon Castle lurking. The problem with UConn is fixable and frankly avoidable. In all three of their losses, they got punched in the mouth. Yes, while Creighton rarely ever missed in their second meeting, the Blue Jays, along with both Seton Hall and Kansas, took the fight to UConn. How can the Huskies avoid this? Cam Spencer has proven to be the straw the stirs the metaphorical drink. Getting him involved — and fired up — early will promote a heightened sense of team spirit, which, when UConn gets, makes them utterly unbeatable.
Guard Cam Spencer; San Diego Union-Tribune
4.
Tennessee, 21-6 (11-3)
Likelihood: Find Knecht’s shoe size; it may be a Cinderella run.
Tennessee is currently ranked fourth, meaning they’d be the final one seed in the bracketology. Yet, most brackets slate UT on the two-line, believing teams like Arizona will overtake the Vols come Selection Sunday. If Tennessee wins the SEC, there is no doubt that the Vols should be anything but a one seed. Dalton Knecht is a three-level, creative scorer who may win national player of the year, and guard Zakai Zeigler offers a dynamic presence from beyond the ark. UT has wins over Wisconsin by ten, Illinois, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, and a thirty point thrashing of a then undefeated Ole Miss team. Now, I made sure to include the word Cinderella in this report, as the Volunteers have cracked against top-ranked teams such as Purdue, Kansas, and UNC. Tennessee will need to buckle down and play better defense down the stretch in close games if they wish to contend past the Elite Eight.
Guard Zakai Zeigler; Yahoo Sports
5.
Marquette, 21-6 (12-4)
Likelihood: Too inconsistent.
A problem that seems to plague all MU teams is consistency. This rendition of the Golden Eagles is no different. Led by the stellar guard play of Tyler Kolek and Cam Jones, Marquette has built quite possibly their best team in recent program history. Oso Ighodaro is a crafty center down low, but has struggled against every elite big man he has faced (Clingan, Kalkbrenner, Edey). Marquette has a collection of pretty decent wins, including Kansas, Illinois, and Creighton, but also owns the unignorable 28-point beating from UConn, as well as losses to Providence and Butler. Marquette is the type of two seed that will make it to the Sweet 16, but start to sputter when a three seed starts hot and rallies early. I personally am out on the Golden Eagles this year.
Guard Tyler Kolek; The Marquette Wire
6.
Arizona, 21-6 (12-4)
Likelihood: This is not going to go well.
This is virtually the same Arizona team that lost in last year’s first round plus UNC-transfer Caleb Love. Love, while providing another dimension of offense for the Wildcats, has a tendency to take too many nonsensical shots that bury Arizona in offensive holes. Sure, center Oumar Ballo and guard Kylan Boswell are excellent options for Love to find, but both have hot and cold spurts that leave the AU offense lifeless for minutes at a time. This under the surface, bubbling trait that Arizona possesses is exactly what eliminated them in the first round last season. Losses to Wazzu (twice), Oregon State, and Stanford don’t help their case either. I am out on Arizona this year.
Center Oumar Ballo; Sports Illustrated
7.
Kansas, 21-6 (9-5)
Likelihood: Not enough star-power.
To have success in March, you need elite guard play. Kansas has good guard play in Kevin McCullar Jr., but the Jayhawks struggle around him and center Hunter Dickinson. Freshman Johnny Furphy is a very solid player with undeniable talent, but I don’t trust him with the ball in his hands down two with ten seconds left. When McCullar Jr. was out hurt, the Jayhawk offense looked lost, and is the main catalyst for Kansas’ five conference losses (the most of any team in this article). If McCullar Jr. or Dickinson ever come off the court together, Kansas will struggle indelibly, which is why I’m staying away from the upset-prone Jayhawks.
Guard Kevin McCullar Jr.; ESPN
8.
Iowa State, 21-6 (10-4)
Likelihood: A sneaky three-seeded champion!
Guided by the superb play of Keshon Gilbert, ISU has managed their best season in over a decade and currently sits at the No. 2 seed in the Big-XII Tournament. The Cyclones have beaten the likes of Houston, TCU (twice), Baylor, and Texas Tech as their ten conference wins match their most since 2016. Historically speaking, ISU falls short in the tournament every season, yet this year feels different. There’s an energy around this team, and the moxy surrounding Cyclone basketball makes them almost unbeatable at home. Now, the tournament will be played at a neutral site of course, but ISU has proven their ability to stay close in some of the toughest arenas in the country (seven point loss @Houston). The odds are that ISU will be in the three line, and I like this team to go to at least the Elite Eight, maybe even to the title game.
Guard Keshon Gilbert; ISU Athletics
9.
North Carolina, 22-6 (14-3)
Likelihood: A first weekend outing.
Its all a trap! UNC’s brand of basketball cannot survive in March! North Carolina has won just one game by single digits since the second week of January, and has lost to Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and Clemson in that stretch. UNC’s tendency to play down to competition will come back to bite them come March, and even in the ACC Tournament this upcoming week. While RJ Davis is a fine player in the backcourt, Bacot has proven not to be a capable “big time” center. The fraudulent nature of this team is palpable, and I will be staying far away from the Tar Heels come tournament time.
Guard RJ Davis; NCAA
10.
Duke, 21-6 (12-4)
Likelihood: A sneaky Final Four team… but nothing more.
Mr. “Two Days Into College” has emerged as a star for the Dukies, who currently find themselves in the middle of the four line on Katz’s bracketology. If Duke were to land as a four seed, I am riding the blue wave all the way to the Elite Eight, and, depending on their two or three seed draw in the region, the Final Four. The Blue Devils are loaded with talent, including Kyle Filipowski (16.9 PPG), Jeremy Roach (14.2), the aforementioned McCain, as well as Mark Mitchell (12.7). Duke’s starting lineup is the most well rounded it has been since the Zion days in 2018. They can compete with anyone in the country with their starting five on the court, but depth is an issue with only one player off the bench averaging more than three PPG. Despite a recent — and controversial — loss to Wake Forest, Duke has still won 16 out of 19 and has firmly entrenched themselves in the ACC standings.
Guard Jared McCain; News Observer